Optimistic future forecasts for the development of the photovoltaic world market
- “Tetrawatt era” already forecast for 2022
- 99.1 gigawatts of photovoltaic installations added worldwide in 2017
- Nine countries exceeded the one gigawatt mark in 2017
Improved forecasts: According to the latest calculations, demand is expected to grow to more than 200 gigawatts – bringing the projected start of the “tetrawatt era” forward to 2022.
A current outlook on the development of the photovoltaic market until 2022
This year’s Intersolar Europe took place in Munich from 19-22 June. Among other things, Solarpower Europe presented its “Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2018-2022”. According to this, the association expects demand in the photovoltaic market to continue to increase over the next five years. Last year, 99.1 gigawatts of photovoltaic systems were added worldwide – according to forecasts for 2018, even the 100 gigawatt mark is to be broken. Therefore, 621.7 gigawatts of newly installed photovoltaic capacity can be expected by 2022.
In addition, the number of countries reaching the one-gigawatt mark continues to rise. While there were just seven markets in 2016, the forecast raises hopes for a total of 14 countries in 2018, following nine countries last year. After the stagnation of new installations in the EU member states at just under six gigawatts since 2016, increased growth can now be expected here as well. For this year alone, Solarpower Europe expects a growth rate of 45 percent, which should even increase to 59 percent in 2019.
Demand on the global market is expected to increase by 3.5 percent to over 102 gigawatts of newly installed capacity. With 53 gigawatts, new photovoltaic capacity in China accounted for more than half of newly installed capacity worldwide for the first time last year. For the coming year, however, Solarpower Europe expects a decline due to political changes. In Europe, on the other hand, there is a new market dynamic, which is not least supported by Turkey, which was able to increase its new installations from seven to more than nine gigawatts last year – and thus mainly contributed to European growth.
Photovoltaics on the winning track
In summary, Solarpower Europe President Christian Westermeier spoke of another historic year for the photovoltaic sector. Photovoltaics expanded more than any other area of power generation technologies in 2017 – the growth even exceeded that of all fossil fuels combined. Westermeier commented: “Photovoltaics is on the winning track and on its way to becoming the dominant energy source of the 21st century.”
Conclusion: Based on the latest developments and figures, Solarpower Europe once again corrected its scenarios for the development of the coming years upwards. In the middle scenario, taking into account the latest results, they assume a total installed photovoltaic capacity of 871 gigawatts in 2021. This means that the forecasts are 13 percent better than previously expected. At the end of this year, a cumulative capacity of 505 gigawatts worldwide is to be expected. Thus, the “tetrawatt era” could be ushered in as early as 2022. In the optimistic scenario, it could even be a year earlier.